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In a recent dialogue that stirred both controversy and reflection, senior advisor at CSIORS, Issam Khoury, provided a clear-eyed analysis of Syria’s political transition, raising urgent questions about the future shape of governance, sectarian dynamics, and international influence in the region.
A Government Not Born of the Moment
Khoury emphasized that the government led by Ahmad Al-Shara was not a spontaneous creation, but the result of long-term training and preparation by international institutions, notably British entities. This foundation, he argues, makes it a project of Western design, not simply a domestic initiative. Sanctions lifted or bypassed were seen as a form of "political resuscitation" meant to give this structure room to grow.
Despite its ideological baggage and the presence of hardline Salafist factions, Khoury argued that there is potential for this government to shift toward inclusivity—if international actors like the US and UK continue to exert pressureand offer structured pathways to integration.
Minorities Replacing Minorities?
A controversial theme raised was the replacement of one minority’s dominance (Alawite) with another (Salafist). Khoury cautioned against building a new government around another exclusionary identity, especially one with limited representation and narrow worldview. The challenge, he argued, is not simply ideological moderation but full-spectrum inclusion of Syria’s diverse social and political fabric.
Enter Sheikh Al-Arour: A Saudi Message?
Khoury drew attention to the recent public reappearance of Sheikh Adnan Al-Arour, a figure previously associated with polarizing rhetoric. His visit to Hafez al-Assad’s grave and message to the Alawite community—“You are from us, and we are from you”—was interpreted as a Saudi-backed gesture of reconciliation.
“This is a sign that the ‘new Salafism’ is attempting a shift,” Khoury remarked, suggesting a transition toward political pragmatism and away from exclusionary dogma.
Whether this shift is sincere or strategic remains to be seen, but Khoury insists that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are playing a central role in pushing these transformations forward—at least on the surface.
American Oversight and Barak’s Role
The discussion expanded into Thomas J. Barrack’s potential role in Syria’s economic future. Khoury underscored that Donald Trump’s appointment of Barrack, a Lebanese-American with deep ties to the Middle East and real estate investments, may not be coincidental. It could signal a wave of Western investment interest—conditional on Syria achieving a semblance of political and security stability.
Critique of Conspiracy-Driven Media
While panelists like Nidal Zghbour voiced sharp skepticism, framing the new governance as a Western orchestration driven by American, Israeli, and Turkish agendas, Khoury opted for realism over fatalism. He resisted the conspiracy framing, instead calling for a media culture grounded in political economy and institutional analysis.
“The new Syria needs media professionals who are free from conspiracy culture and fully aware of political economy,” Khoury noted.
He reminded audiences of Philip Habib’s pivotal role in mediating the Israeli withdrawal from Beirut—an example that nuanced diplomacy and international engagement can yield concrete results, far from the binary of betrayal vs. resistance.
Final Thoughts: From Eastern Bloc to Western Alignment
Khoury concluded that Syria has transitioned from the Eastern axis (Iran-Russia) to a Western-leaning model, arguing this shift—while fraught—is the only realistic path toward economic development and societal integration with the world.
While deeply aware of the risks and manipulations involved, he sees an opportunity to reconstruct Syria—not as a theater of foreign ambitions, but as a nation capable of rebuilding itself if its people, institutions, and partners are given honest terms and real agency.
Catch his full responses and the stakes behind each question here: https://youtu.be/Fu1PgVKJ6wg
