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(Ukrainian intelligence recruited armed men from the "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" organization in Idlib province, northwestern Syria, to carry out operations against Russian forces) said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on September 12, 2024.
The panic in Russia over the expansion of the Russian-Ukrainian war into a global war is legitimate, especially since the statements of the Democratic Party presidential candidate Kamala Harris are clear regarding the continued support of Washington for Ukraine if she is elected in October 2024. In light of these developments, President Putin visited Mongolia, a country bordering China and North Korea, on September 2, 2024, with the aim of ensuring the stability of his country's eastern borders. He also called for an increase in military forces to ensure the continuation of expansion in southwestern Ukraine.
The anxious front for the Russians is in Syria, where the Russian military presence is small, and the Israelis have been able to bypass Russian radars dozens of times without any deterrent from the S400 missile batteries. Some may argue that this was done with Russian-Israeli understanding; however, the Israeli airborne operation at the scientific research center in Masyaf on September 8, 2024, is certainly a clear violation of any Russian-Israeli understanding, as several of the killed guards were from the Russian-backed Fifth Division, which is deployed around the town of Masyaf. This confirms that the Russians are in agreement with the Iranians to protect this facility, and they are aware of the projects for manufacturing and developing drones and missiles by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard inside Syria. This indicates that they are indirect partners with Hezbollah in targeting Israeli settlements in the Upper Galilee.
The Russians' desire to support Iran primarily aims to draw American military support in Ukraine towards Israel so that they can deepen their incursion into Ukrainian territory, improving their negotiating terms with the West that supports Volodymyr Zelensky.
Washington, along with Israel, is clearly aware of Russian movements. When numerous American warships moved to the Middle East to support Israel after its assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024, Russia sent advanced missile systems in August 2024 to support Tehran in case of a major aerial attack from Isreal and Washington. This indicates that Moscow is betting on Tehran and wants to maintain its presence as a competing or provocative regional power against Israel and the United States.
However, the reality shows that Tehran is far behind Israel, especially in technology and cyber warfare, as Tel Aviv has managed to penetrate Iranian communication systems multiple times, leading to several assassinations, the latest being on September 17, 2024, when the communication system of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria was breached, resulting in injuries to over three thousand Hezbollah members and the deaths of dozens due to an explosion of their phone batteries.
Consequently, Moscow sought to choose alternatives that would irritate Washington in the Middle East alongside Iran. Perhaps the best alternative for the Kremlin is Turkey, a country with a strong economy and a NATO member, which has significant influence over several militias spread across Syrian territory. Moscow insists on pushing Bashar al-Assad's regime to accept reconciliation with Turkey, hoping to form a unified Syrian-Turkish front against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which would irritate the Americans. This situation attracts the Turkish nationalist movement, represented by the Turkish newspaper "Aydinlik[1]," known for its anti-American stance and commitment to prioritizing the fight against the PKK.
The "Aydinlik" Published on September 10, 2024, " Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham has received drones from the Ukrainian side in exchange for sending experienced militants and leaders from the terrorist organization to Ukraine[2]." This information could assist Moscow in preparing the Russian public for the potential presence of radical extremists in Kursk Oblast. Such an announcement may expedite the involvement of Belarusian forces alongside the Russian army in the battle to liberate Kursk from Ukrainian control. Kursk's geographical proximity to Belarus makes Islamic extremists there a concerning prospect for the Belarusian people.
Certainly, the integration of the Belarusian army alongside Moscow in this conflict would alleviate pressure on Russia from the West.
Turkey, which is wary of the PKK, is not concerned about the Russian plan to exploit the story of radical extremists coming from Idlib to Ukraine, as it holds the reins of the militants in Idlib and knows they cannot rebel against it.
However, Turkey seeks to play a balancing role between Russia and Washington to gain the greatest benefits for its national security. Therefore, it is conciliatory towards Moscow regarding reconciliation with Bashar al-Assad's regime, provided that the latter commits to fighting the PKK and undermining the activities of the SDF. Assad, in turn, has pushed some Arab tribes led by the leader of the Akidat tribe, "Ibrahim al-Hefl," to target some American observation towers protecting the borders of the northeastern Syrian region. However, Hefl's forces faced clear resistance, proving the inability of the Syrian regime forces, hidden behind the Arab tribes, to confront the American-backed SDF. This situation has led Turkish officials to repeatedly express their unwillingness to abandon the Idlib and northern Aleppo regions as long as Resolution 2254 is not activated and there is no safe return for refugees.
These developments prompted the Syrian Foreign Minister on September 10, 2024, to withdraw from the Arab foreign ministers' meeting during the Turkish speech, considering the Turkish presence and occupation of Syrian territory. This incident made the Russians feel that their project was at risk of failure, prompting them to send Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu to Damascus on September 16, 2024, to urge Assad to normalize relations with Turkey.
In reality, Turkey has extensive influence over the Arab tribes opposed to the Syrian regime. Those tribes have allied within an armed organization called "The Movement for Liberation and Construction," which includes the most important armed factions from the Deir ez-Zor countryside, namely (Ahrar al-Sharqiya, al-Sharqiya Army “Lions of the East Army”, 20th Division, Suqour al-Sham Brigades). These factions possess higher military and organizational capabilities than the Arab tribes led by Ibrahim al-Hefl. If reconciliation occurs between Assad and Erdogan, Hefl's forces could join the "Movement for Liberation and Construction," and this tribal force may engage in a war of attrition on behalf of Syria and Turkey against the SDF. This would mean an increase in Turkey's influence in Syria and greater protection of Turkish national security interests. Turkey could present this project to the Americans as a legitimate partner in NATO, and it would be responsible for monitoring the Syrian-Iraqi borders.
Russia, seeing Iran as weak, has no choice but to extend a hand to Erdogan, despite Moscow's conviction that the Turks will ultimately lean towards the West due to their commitment to NATO. In fact, Russia does not ask Ankara to abandon NATO but seeks to make it a partner that guarantees the security of its forces in the Middle East and holds it responsible for any breach carried out by Ukrainian intelligence within Turkish spheres of influence.
[1] Aydınlık ("Clarify" or "Enlightenment" in Turkish) is the newspaper of the Patriotic Party (Vatan Partisi). Originally launched as a weekly newspaper in 1921.
https://www.aydinlik.com.tr/english
[2] https://arabic.rt.com/world/1599270-وسائل-إعلام-أوكرانيا-تحاول-اجتذاب-إرهابيين-لتنفيذ-عمليات-ضد-روسيا/
