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There is significant mobilization in the areas of Idlib controlled by the armed opposition, where the Rescue Government has gathered a large quantity of medical and emergency supplies, established field hospitals, and stored various blood types in preparation for a potential battle. Several military leaders have moved their families from towns near the Turkish-Russian separation line M4 to deeper areas within Idlib province. All military factions have been asked to mobilize fighters in anticipation of any imminent military action. The Ministry of Defense in the Rescue Government has assigned a liaison officer to each faction to organize movements whenever such actions are approved.
These actions from the Syrian opposition coincided with the entry of large quantities of weapons to Turkish army units inside Idlib at the end of September. Notably, rocket launchers and artillery shells arrived via the Kafr Lousin crossing into Turkish bases in the Jabal al-Zawiya area. These are offensive weapons that Turkey has never needed in the areas controlled by the Rescue Government, while similar weapons have been present in the "Peace Spring" and "Euphrates Shield" areas for some time. However, the Turks introduced new air defense systems at the beginning of October, deployed near the city of Azaz close to the research area, indicating a Turkish mobilization as well.
The Sham Front, one of the prominent factions of the Turkish-backed National Army in northern Aleppo, has also raised its combat readiness amidst complete secrecy about its movements. Its members have been instructed to remain in the camp areas, while other factions have distanced themselves from media appearances, and their fighters have avoided showcasing their military equipment.
It is noteworthy that the Syrian army has altered the level of its presence in towns adjacent to the M4 road, as the forces of the Fifth Division, supported by Russia, have retreated to the Syrian desert and vacated their military positions of heavy weapons. Other Syrian military factions have taken their place, with artillery being their only heavy weapon. This gives the impression that the Syrian regime's army is not serious about countering the opposition forces or is underestimating them by relying on Russian air power with artillery support.
In reality, this strategy is ineffective against the Syrian opposition, as the striking power of the Syrian regime's army is limited to the Fourth Division, followed by the Fifth Division, which engages in joint exercises with the Russian army. If Russia were serious about countering the Syrian opposition's attack, it would have been necessary not to impose the withdrawal of the Fifth Division from its positions. However, the Fifth Division seems compelled to this direction, as the armed opposition's attack on regime areas may not withstand it, leading to a significant void in the Syrian regime's army. This is especially concerning since the Fourth Division surrounding the capital Damascus has suffered painful Israeli strikes. Therefore, Maher al-Assad has requested the Russians to ensure the preservation of the Fifth Division to support the Fourth Division's forces in case the Israeli war against Hezbollah expands to the heart of Damascus.
For its part, Russia has sought to intimidate the Syrian opposition in Idlib by bombing vital infrastructure, most notably the Darkoush water station, which has caused drinking water shortages for a large part of Idlib province. It has also targeted several areas, notably ("Kabina" in Jabal al-Turkman and "Kafr Jalis camp" near Ma'arat Misrin). Notably, Russian aircraft have used vacuum and cluster bombs despite the superficial and unimportant nature of the targets. The apparent goal is to create destruction and frightening sounds that reach all neighboring towns of the targeted area, instilling terror in the hearts of the armed opposition.
However, these Russian movements have had a negative backlash, as Syrian opposition pages, especially those active in the Salafi current, have begun to rally public opinion for the necessity of responding to the Syrian regime and its Russian ally. On October 16, 2024, a statement was issued in the name of the "Northern Liberated Sector," emphasizing the need to pressure the "Al-Fath al-Mubin" operations room affiliated with the Rescue Government to carry out a swift military operation against the Iranian and Russian allies of the Syrian regime. They published video recordings accusing Hezbollah elements stationed in the "Sheikh Ali" area near Atarib of targeting the town of Atarib, resulting in the death of a child.
Certainly, the Syrian opposition fears Russian air power and realizes that it will incur many losses due to the Russians. However, this opposition has a vendetta against Hezbollah, and now this party, along with all the Shiite militias, is in a state of weakness and fear of Israeli strikes. Thus, the Sunni armed opposition sees an opportunity to pounce on them as a suitable and tempting matter for their feelings burdened with hatred towards the Shiite fighters who occupied the homes of Sunnis and displaced their families towards Idlib and the Aleppo countryside.
The Turks have sought, through the Russian mediator, to reconcile with Bashar al-Assad, but Assad ignored Erdogan, and the Syrian regime has continued to describe the Turkish presence in Syria as an occupation and the cause of all the calamities that have afflicted Syria. This hostile language from the Syrian regime, combined with Israeli encroachment in the Quneitra area, prompted Turkish President Erdogan to state on October 9, 2024, "Israel will come to northern Syria the moment it occupies Damascus." This statement by the Turkish president indicates the Syrian regime's ineffectiveness as a military force, which has led Turkish forces to intensify their military presence in northern Syria. Therefore, Turkey may overlook the activities of the armed Syrian opposition if it decides to expand further into northwest Syria. This attack may extend to capture the city of Aleppo and its countryside, creating a sufficient geographical area to host the Syrian refugees spread across Turkey. Thanks to Turkish influence over the Syrian opposition factions, this area could become a buffer zone protecting Turkish national security from a strong regional state neighboring its borders called Israel.
This scenario, although unrealistic and not desired by Israel, excites Turkey's appetite, and Moscow cannot refuse it, especially since it has failed to bring the Syrian president to negotiate with Turkey. Ironically, the Syrian regime may find in this battle a golden opportunity to evade Iranian blackmail regarding the necessity of supporting Hezbollah in its battle, as Assad will declare before what is called the "Axis of Resistance and Confrontation" that he is unable to provide support because he is confronting Turkey. In reality, he is getting rid of some of his military elements and losing some areas in exchange for prolonging his stay in power for a longer period.
