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All the countries of the world are waiting for President Donald Trump's inauguration, as he promised to bring peace and end wars and conflicts around the globe. Notably, this expectation is not limited to major countries like Ukraine and Russia but extends to non-state organizations such as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). The media there has been buzzing with various scenarios regarding the reality of that region if American forces withdraw from northeastern Syria, and the Turks have been called upon to fill the void.
These expectations emerged after a flood of Turkish statements urging the new American presidency to abandon the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) due to their links to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). At the same time, the Turks have increased the numbers and equipment of the Turkish-backed National Army factions, and the "Movement for Liberation and Construction" has gained a higher status than other National Army organizations, as the latter focuses its military rhetoric on the necessity of liberating the Autonomous Administration areas from Kurdish dominance.
Most of the fighters of the Movement for Liberation and Construction (Ahrar al-Sharqiya, al-Sharqiya Army, 20th Division, Suqour al-Sham Brigades) are from the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, and Hasakah. They are interconnected through Arab tribal affiliations, which view the Kurds as a group seeking to separate from Syria, repeating the experience of Iraqi Kurdistan. This means marginalizing the role of Arab tribes, which make up more than 40% of the population in the areas of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.
This rhetoric serves Turkey's interests in rallying Arab tribes to its side, enabling them to form a military and political entity capable of filling the void in the (AANES) areas with Syrian elements, without direct Turkish intervention. Consequently, Turkey has recently provided financial support to the "Movement for Liberation and Construction," which has initiated a new recruitment plan aimed at doubling its forces within what is termed the first corps of the National Army. Additionally, this movement has sought to promote its narrative through various media platforms opposing the Syrian regime and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
This information reached the intelligence of the Syrian Democratic Forces, prompting a decision to deliver significant strikes against the first corps of the National Army, intended to signal to the Turks that they were betting on a losing horse. An unexpected attack by the Syrian Democratic Forces occurred against the checkpoints of the "Movement for Liberation and Construction" on November 24, 2024, targeting neighborhoods in the city of al-Bab, where elements of the first corps are stationed, resulting in the deaths of nine soldiers from the "Movement for Liberation and Construction," led by "Abu Hatim Shaqra," and five soldiers from a smaller military faction called "Samarkand," led by "Thaer Ma’roof." This attack was notable for its timing at night, as the fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces utilized night vision goggles to locate and sniper the National Army fighters.
The Turkish artillery responded promptly, commencing shelling of the Syrian Democratic Forces' positions. The fighters of the "Movement for Liberation and Construction" released a video asserting that they repelled the sudden attack and inflicted significant damage on the Syrian Democratic Forces. Notably, media outlets loyal to the Democratic Autonomous Administration completely ignored the military engagement at the moment it occurred, suggesting that the politicians (Syrian Democratic Council)within the AANES are not coordinating with the military body (SDF) that is supposed to be under their command. Strangely, the website of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) delayed reporting the event until November 26, 2024, stating that this attack was a reaction to assaults and attacks by the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries, indicating that all fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces returned safely after killing seventeen fighters from the National Army, who were identified in the statement as (mercenaries from the remnants of the terrorist organization “ISIS”).
The language employed in the discourse is undoubtedly escalatory, particularly as it coincided with a heightened state of alert for the Syrian Democratic Forces along the usual engagement points with the National Army factions. The Sham Front, led by "Abu al-Izz Sarqib," and the Joint Force affiliated with the Second Division, led by "Fahim Issa," announced their solidarity with the martyrs of the Movement for Liberation and Construction, declaring in their statements that the attackers were mercenaries of the terrorist PKK. Additionally, the interim government led by Abdul Rahman Mustafa issued a condolence statement and vowed to seek retribution from the terrorists; however, none of these factions launched an attack on the positions of the Syrian Democratic Forces. Instead, Turkish artillery alone initiated shelling several positions of the SDF, claiming to have killed PKK terrorists.
In reality, the National Army factions moving toward an open war against the Syrian Democratic Forces will only do so with a decision from Ankara. Currently, Ankara does not wish to escalate the military conflict on its southern borders; it is awaiting Trump’s assumption of office and is betting on securing a deal with his administration, especially given that its forces are the largest in NATO and can economically meet the requirement of increasing its defense spending to 2% of the total national income. Turkey is also acting as a negotiating bridge between the West and Russia. All these factors are leverage for Erdogan, and what bolsters this leverage is Ankara's success in preparing the National Army factions to operate more professionally and effectively on the Turkish southern front. The Syrian Democratic Forces, apprehensive of Trump, are also striving to enhance their negotiating position in the event that President Trump imposes a peaceful option with Ankara. Consequently, they have decided to intensify their war of attrition against the National Army factions, which they accuse of terrorism, while avoiding direct confrontation with the Turkish army. This equation may persist until the official inauguration of the occupant of the White House, suggesting that we may witness a series of skirmishes; however, these clashes will not alter the political landscape of the positions of both parties. They will, nonetheless, create administrative turmoil, with both the interim Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Council appearing as isolated political entities from a scene controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the National Army, with Turkish intelligence orchestrating behind the scenes.
