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In a span of ten hours, the forces of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham managed to storm the barriers of the Syrian regime and Hezbollah militias, now just ten kilometers away from the city of Aleppo, in what is termed the (ردع العدوان"Countering Aggression"( operation that began on the morning of November 27, 2024. The surprising aspect of this attack, according to observers, is the absence of any Russian resistance to the attackers and the near-mass flight of the Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters, with the Syrian regime reporting only twenty-five soldiers killed, indicating a staged surrender of military positions. This was anticipated in our report "Military Movements of the Rescue Government" dated October 16, 2024, where the military wing of the so-called Rescue Government seized over 25 villages in just ten hours. They also completely dominated the 46th Brigade of the Syrian army, taking over all its equipment and tanks, and were able to cut the road connecting Damascus and Aleppo, signifying a clear breach of the demarcation line established by the Russians and Turks, known as the M4 highway.
Should Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham reach the city of Aleppo, it would present a golden opportunity for the National Army to advance from the north towards Aleppo, resulting in the loss of the regime's control over the entirety of Aleppo and Idlib provinces, transforming these provinces into an administration overseen by the Rescue Government, which has proven to have much higher administrative efficiency than the temporary Syrian government, which has been unable to control the armed factions within the so-called National Army. This was clarified in our report "Policy or Militarization in Northern Syria" published on September 30, 2024.
In reality, the armed factions within the National Army are constrained by Turkish decision-making, while the opposition factions in Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham exhibit a degree of independence, despite good coordination with the Turks. Therefore, Turkey may seek to create a type of integration between both armed groups, establishing a new military body not subject to international sanctions and restructuring the administrative work between the two bodies opposing the Syrian regime, so that the structure of the Rescue Government becomes an administrative model for governing both provinces. In contrast, the temporary Syrian government transforms into a political entity focused on foreign affairs.
Certainly, such a scenario may clash with the anti-terrorism project, as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Guardians of Religion, and many leaders of the Nusra Front, such as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, are listed as terrorists. However, the Turks are capable of managing these groups, having succeeded in transforming the Nusra Front from an international jihadist organization loyal to Al-Qaeda into a local armed group focused solely on Syrian affairs. Notably, this organization has allowed for the establishment of a civil administrative structure through what is called the Rescue Government, which has rectified many of the violations it previously committed against religious minorities in Idlib and restored many of the rights taken from Sunni Muslims within an acceptable legal framework, albeit not ideal. Thus, Turkey may succeed in transforming the armed Islamist groups spread across Idlib into unarmed political parties, a scenario that may be regionally desired, and signs of it may be occurring now with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
If Turkey succeeds in this matter, it will have a very strong military wing capable of defeating the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) fighters and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), without cooperating with or normalizing relations with the Syrian regime. This scenario suits the Syrian regime, which fears the American-backed SDF. The regime also sees this scenario as an opportunity to rid itself of a large Sunni Syrian populace residing in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. Hence, the Syrian regime ignored the attack on Aleppo, as the Syrian news agency did not publish any news about the attack on the rural areas of Aleppo on November 27, 2024, and only reported on the Syrian sports federation and developments in Lebanon.
In reality, the Syrian regime is incapable of resisting Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in the absence of Russian and Iranian support. Currently, Hezbollah forces deployed in Syria are in a state of turmoil, fearing Israeli airstrikes, and the Russian air force is reluctant to intervene in the absence of a capable Syrian-Iranian ground force to fill the void after airstrikes.
All these indicators suggest the fall of Aleppo province into the hands of Turkey-backed factions. Perhaps the sudden attack by the Syrian Democratic Forces on the city of al-Bab north of Aleppo on November 24, 2024, aimed to prevent the National Army from joining forces with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in the battle for Aleppo, with the goal of delaying the fall of this province into the hands of Turkey-aligned military factions. From this, we see that the United States does not endorse this direction, but at the same time does not oppose granting the Turks a consolation prize as they are the best negotiating bridge between Russia and Ukraine.
