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The assassination war pursued by the Mossad and the Israeli army has left Iran and its allies in a state of confusion. They are unable to inflict pain on Israel as clearly as it does, yet they are compelled to promote in the media, in front of their audience, that they have much in store and surprising actions against Israel. The red flag has been raised on the minarets of some husseiniyahs in the Iranian city of Qom, a clear indication of the inevitability of Iranian revenge for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh at the Iranian guesthouse. Hassan Nasrallah announced on August 1, 2024, that his party would avenge the killing of military leader Fouad Shukr.
Iranian media and its affiliates have begun to buzz with scenarios of response, including a unilateral response from Tehran, or attempts to outline a scenario of response involving the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Syrian regime. Notably, this media insisted on linking American military power with Israeli power, paving the way for the idea of targeting American military bases scattered throughout the region. Indeed, American bases in Syria and Iraq were targeted nearly a hundred times by Shiite militias during the year 2023, with a qualitative increase in targeting operations at the beginning of this year under the pretext of supporting Hamas, which is facing significant pressure from Israel in the Gaza Strip.
The Americans realized the necessity of organizing their defenses, so they initiated the construction of observation towers ranging from 8 to 15 meters high, equipped with surveillance cameras and early warning systems, extending from the village of Al-Jarzat west of Deir ez-Zor to the village of Al-Baghuz in the eastern countryside along the Syrian-Iraqi border. However, this project was not completed at the time due to military disputes between Arab tribes and the Kurds. It was expedited in mid-July 2024, resulting in the deployment of 142 new observation towers distributed across the following villages (Jadeed Ekedat, Jadeed Bakkarah, Al-Sabha, Abriha, Al-Basira, Al-Zar, Al-Hawajidz, and Al-Shheel in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Baghuz).
This strip of towers represents the boundary between areas controlled by the regime and effectively dominated by Shiite militias in Deir ez-Zor, and areas in northeastern Syria. This American approach came after the growing Iranian activity among the Arab tribes in Deir ez-Zor aimed at encouraging them to launch attacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces. The Arab tribes initiated the destruction of an observation tower belonging to the Syrian Democratic Forces in the town of Al-Harmoushiyah in the Deir ez-Zor countryside, killing three soldiers, and then quickly withdrew, relying on guerrilla warfare tactics. The behavior of the Arab tribes coincided with a series of secret visits made by the leader of the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, Hussein Fallah, known as "Abu Zainab Al-Lami[1]," to the Deir ez-Zor countryside since the beginning of 2024. Al-Lami is known as the architect of a series of attacks on restaurants bearing American brands such as KFC and Pizza Hut in the capital Baghdad, where he sought, along with a group of his supporters, to establish a civil group called "The Movement of Youth of Al-Quds the Revolutionary," tasked with attacking all American brands in Iraq. This trend was reinforced by a tweet from the public relations official of the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, "Abu Ali Al-Askari[2]," emphasizing the necessity of confronting American investments in Iraq.
After the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, local residents in the city of Al-Mayadeen witnessed a masked group surrounding an Iranian advisor, likely accompanied by Abu Zainab Al-Lami. This group traveled in four-wheel drive vehicles through several villages overlooking the Euphrates River, indicating that the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades are planning to execute an attack on those towers or seeking to disrupt them, aiming to create a state of alert among American forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces during the Iranian attack on Israel, or to destroy those towers and allow some nationalists from the Arab tribes to carry out qualitative operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces, in an attempt to create a popular Syrian resistance against the U.S. allies in Syria.
The challenge for the United States lies in the fact that the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades "Kataib Hezbollah", along with the Al-Nujaba Movement and the Fatimiyun militia, have direct connections with Arab tribes dissatisfied with Kurdish influence over the Syrian Democratic Forces. They capitalize on Arab sympathy for the Palestinians, portraying themselves as saviors of the oppressed and attempting to depict Americans as an occupying force, urging Arab tribes to resist them as they did in Iraq. If this behavior is backed by weaponry, it could lead to a prolonged military drain along the Euphrates River. Therefore, Washington must reassess its military strategies in northeastern Syria and work to win the support of Arab tribes. This could involve two options: the first being the initiation of a Parallel Zones Project[3] proposed by the Czech-Slovak Institute of Oriental Studies on July 2023, or the second option of forming a Turkish alliance with the Arab tribes, allowing them to establish military bases in Deir ez-Zor to ensure disengagement between Iranian militias and those aligned with Washington. This latter option may help reconcile Kurdish and Turkish interests under American auspices, ultimately enhancing Turkish national security and contributing to the resolution of the Syrian refugee crisis
[1] Hussein Falah, also known as Abu Zeinab al-Lami, or al-Lami
[2] Hussein Mu’nis Faraj Al-Aboudi, nicknamed Abu Ali Al-Askari, and he has another nickname called Abu Musa
[3] Parallel Zones Project, Jul 01, 2023/ The Czech-Slovak Institute of Oriental Studies
