Overview

This report synthesizes 18 field submissions collected through the CSIORS anonymous survey network between November 2025 and March 2026. After filtering 5 entries flagged as suspect (currency mismatches, incomplete data), 13 validated entries from 7 cities in northeast Syria inform this assessment. An additional entry from Şanlıurfa, Turkey provides a cross-border reference point on conditions facing Syrian refugees.

The data covers a period of significant political upheaval — the Assad regime fell in December 2024, with HTS assuming control of Damascus and Turkish-backed SNA forces expanding into northern and northeastern Syria. The governance map in our survey area (Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Hasakah governorates) has fundamentally changed since our baseline was established.

Price environment

Wheat flour — the primary staple and most widely reported commodity — ranges from 2,500 to 10,000 SYP/kg across the survey area, with a median of 5,000 SYP/kg. This sits below the WFP national average of 6,617 SYP/kg reported in August 2025, but the comparison requires caution: WFP benchmarks predate the political transition by several months and reflect a different governance reality.

The most striking finding is not the average price level but the variance. Within Raqqa alone, respondents report flour at 2,500, 3,000, 5,500, 6,000, and 10,000 SYP/kg — a 4:1 ratio within a single city. This likely reflects a combination of market fragmentation (different supply chains under different local authorities), currency confusion (some respondents may be mentally converting between SYP and USD), and genuinely different purchasing power across neighborhoods.

A month-over-month comparison suggests a modest decline from November (average 6,200 SYP/kg) to December (average 5,133 SYP/kg), possibly driven by the 200,000 metric ton wheat import from Ukraine and Russia referenced in WFP Bulletin #131. However, the sample sizes (5 and 6 entries respectively) are too small for statistical confidence.

Other commodity prices show less variance: cooking oil clusters at 13,000–20,000 SYP/L (WFP median: 16,000), rice at 6,000–14,000 SYP/kg (WFP range: 7,000–15,000), and eggs at 10,000–40,000 SYP per 10 pieces (WFP range: 12,000–35,000). All fall within or near WFP benchmark ranges, lending credibility to the field reports.

Labor market and purchasing power

Unskilled daily wages range from 25,000 to 75,000 SYP, with a median around 40,000 SYP. The Terms of Trade — how many kilograms of flour a daily wage can purchase — ranges from 3.1 to 30.0 kg, with a median of 6.0 kg. For context, a ToT below 5 kg is generally considered a food security stress indicator. Five of thirteen respondents report ToT values at or below this threshold, concentrated in Deir ez-Zor and Al-Busayrah where wages are lowest (25,000–30,000 SYP) and flour prices relatively high.

Rent for a 2-room apartment ranges from 400,000 to 1,500,000 SYP/month, with a median of 900,000 SYP. At median wages, this represents 22–36 days of unskilled labor — effectively unaffordable for single-income households. This likely drives the observed displacement patterns.

Job availability is reported as “very low” or “low” by 10 of 13 respondents. Only three entries (Al-Suwar, Deir ez-Zor, Al-Mayadin) report “medium” availability. None report “high.”

Security and displacement

Public mood is described as “worried” (7 respondents), “fearful” (3), or “mostly calm” (3). The “calm” responses come exclusively from Deir ez-Zor and Al-Mayadin — notably the two cities with the highest flour prices but also reportedly more open movement conditions.

Freedom of movement is restricted to some degree for 8 of 13 respondents, including 3 reporting “significantly restricted” and 1 “very restricted” (all in Raqqa). Five respondents — in Deir ez-Zor, Al-Mayadin, Al-Hasakah, and one in Raqqa — report unrestricted movement.

Migration activity is reported by 10 of 13 respondents: 7 observe “mostly individuals” departing, and 3 observe “several families.” The three “none” responses come from Raqqa (November 2025 and March 2026) and Al-Mayadin. Departure patterns are consistent with economic migration rather than acute displacement — gradual outflow driven by unaffordable living costs rather than specific security incidents.

Cross-border reference: Şanlıurfa, Turkey

A single submission from Şanlıurfa provides a useful reference. Flour at 25 TRY/kg ($0.70), daily unskilled wage at 500 TRY ($14), and rent at 8,000 TRY (~$225). The respondent reports families returning to Syria and departing for Europe, citing “fear of economic collapse and rising prices.” The stated reason for price increases: “the war on Iran has driven up prices, especially diesel.”

This entry is too isolated for conclusions but suggests that the cost-of-living pressure is a regional phenomenon, not limited to Syria.

Data quality and limitations

This assessment is based on a small, self-selected sample. Specific limitations include:

The 18 entries come from an estimated 14 unique respondents across 7 cities. All cities are in northeast Syria (Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Hasakah governorates). No data from Idlib, Damascus, Homs, Daraa, or the south.

Five entries were excluded as suspect — three for likely USD/SYP currency confusion in Al-Hasakah, and two near-empty submissions from Aleppo. The March 2026 Raqqa entry contains price anomalies (rice at 15 SYP, cooking oil at 20 SYP — likely missing zeros) but the flour price and qualitative data appear valid.

WFP benchmark data is from August–November 2025 and predates the political transition. Cross-validation is therefore approximate, not precise.

There is a 3-month data gap between January and March 2026. This report cannot speak to conditions during February 2026.

All respondents are anonymous and self-selected. We cannot verify their access to accurate market information or their proximity to the markets they report on.

Early Warning Assessment

The composite Early Warning Score for the most recent submission (Raqqa, March 2026) is 36/100 — classified as WATCH. This reflects moderate deterioration across food security, labor market, and security indicators but remains below the 51-point threshold that would trigger an alert.

The trend is concerning not because of any single data point but because of the cumulative pattern: widespread low job availability, restricted movement, active displacement, and flour prices that — while within WFP ranges — consume a disproportionate share of daily wages for the lowest-earning respondents.

Methodology note

This report follows the CSIORS Data Methodology v1.0. All claims are attributed to specific field data. No country-level averages are presented as representative. External sources are cited for cross-validation. The sample is too small for quantitative generalization — findings should be interpreted as qualitative signals from specific localities, not as assessments of national conditions.

This is the first CSIORS Situational Report based on accumulated field data. It will be followed by additional reports as the field network expands and signal thresholds are met.