The conflict landscape in Ethiopia has undergone a significant transformation over the past six months. While the Tigray ceasefire continues to hold — and northern displacement indicators show marked improvement — a new crisis is emerging in southern Oromia that demands urgent attention from the humanitarian community.
The Northern Paradox
CSIORS field data from Tigray shows a consistent trend toward stabilization. Our Early Warning Score for the northern region has declined from 58 to 34 over the past quarter, driven primarily by improvements in food access and community safety perceptions. Respondents in Mekelle and Axum report functioning markets and reduced displacement pressure.
However, this aggregate improvement masks a critical geographic shift. As northern indicators improve, southern Oromia has seen a dramatic deterioration.
Southern Oromia: The Emerging Epicenter
Thirty-four field responses collected between February 1–28, 2026 paint a concerning picture of southern Oromia. Key indicators include rising food prices (+7% in Addis Ababa over two weeks), increased reports of displacement, and deteriorating safety perceptions in communities south of the capital.
Implications for Early Warning
This geographic shift in Ethiopia’s displacement patterns illustrates both the value and limitations of country-level EWS aggregation. A national score of 42/100 conceals the divergence between a stabilizing north and a deteriorating south. CSIORS is exploring sub-national scoring to better capture these dynamics.